The World Bank forecasts that the UAE's GDP will grow by 3.3% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025-2026. This growth is driven by a recovery in oil production and strong performance in the non-oil sector which includes tourism, real estate and manufacturing, expected to expand by 4.1% this year.

Oil output is anticipated to increase by 1.2% in 2024 as voluntary production cuts are gradually reversed. Inflation is projected to reach 2.2% in 2024 and decline slightly to around 2.1% through 2025-2026.

The report notes a declining fiscal surplus expected to be 4.9% of GDP in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, due to growing non-oil revenues and ongoing fiscal reforms. The current account surplus is projected to reach 7.5% of GDP in 2024 but will decrease in subsequent years, highlighting challenges despite diversification efforts.

Key risks include potential OPEC+ production cuts and regional tensions which could affect oil prices and sectors like tourism and trade. Disruptions in trade routes especially through the Red Sea may also increase costs and impact the economy.